Climate Change and Socio-Economic Vulnerability Assessment of Marginal Community in Malakand Division, Pakistan

Abstract

Mountain communities in the Hindu Kush are facing growing pressures from climate change and the decline of forest resources, but the ways in which these changes shape household vulnerability remain insufficiently understood. This study examines the relationship between climate change and household vulnerability in Malakand Division, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, over the period 1985–2025. The analysis combines long-term climate records, district-level disaster data, and a structured survey of 1,000 households. Mean annual temperature increased by 2.7°C during the study period, with stronger warming at higher elevations, while annual rainfall declined by 170 mm and became increasingly erratic. More than 80% of households surveyed reported moderate-to-high dependence on forest resources, and 77.2% observed a decline in local forest cover. The mean household vulnerability score was 81.96 (SD = 15.58), with relatively limited differences across districts. Regression analysis showed that forest dependency (β = 0.687, p < .001), temperature increase (β = 0.273, p < .001), and rainfall change (β = 0.254, p < .001) were positively associated with vulnerability and together explained 61% of its variance, while education had a small protective effect. Climate-related livelihood impacts were widespread, including reduced crop productivity (57.8%) and declining household income (50.0%). Nearly one in five households reported migration as an adaptation response. Overall, the findings suggest that household vulnerability in Malakand is shaped less by location alone than by dependence on increasingly stressed forest and land resources. Effective adaptation will require targeted community forestry, access to alternative energy, livelihood diversification, and climate-resilient development for vulnerable mountain households.