Chahbahar vs. Gawader: Assessing Strategic competition and its implications for Pakistan

Abstract

This research paper examines the strategic, geopolitical, and geo-economic implications of Iran’s Chahbahr Port as an emerging alternative to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, evaluating the resulting challenges and opportunities for Pakistan in the evolving architecture of regional connectivity. As China and India expand their influence in South Asia, Central Asia, and the Indian Ocean Region, seaports have become central instruments of modern statecraft, economic integration, and power projection. Gwadar, developed under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), plays a pivotal role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering Beijing critical access to the Arabian Sea and shortening its energy and trade routes. Conversely, India’s strategic partnership with Iran through its investment in Chahbahr provides New Delhi with an alternative gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. This development carries major implications for Pakistan’s economic leverage, regional influence, and security environment.

Using a qualitative methodology grounded in thematic analysis, the study synthesizes existing literature, trade patterns, geopolitical behavior, and strategic alignments to assess both ports’ comparative capacities, connectivity corridors, and regional impact. Findings reveal that while Chahbahr expands India’s strategic reach and reduces Pakistan’s monopoly over Afghan transit trade, Gwadar retains superior natural depth, logistical capacity, and long-term geostrategic potential due to CPEC’s multi-billion-dollar infrastructure support. However, the strategic rivalry between China and India complicates cooperation possibilities and heightens geopolitical competition across the Indian Ocean and Central Asia.

The study concludes that Pakistan must adopt a proactive policy framework to maximize Gwadar’s economic potential while mitigating the impact of Chahbahr’s rise through diplomatic engagement, regional connectivity initiatives, and enhanced security measures. It also recommends exploring selective cooperation mechanisms among Pakistan, Iran, and China to prevent Chahbahr–Gwadar competition from escalating into a zero-sum rivalry.