Exploring the role of Regional Powers in shaping Central-South Asian Connectivity Amidst Rising Asia

Abstract

This paper examines how regional powers shape Central–South Asian connectivity amid Asia’s shifting power balance. Using qualitative document analysis and expert insights, it compares China-led BRI/CPEC-linked corridors with India’s engagement through the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Drawing on Copeland’s trade expectations theory, it argues that corridor success depends on expectations of reliable future access rather than infrastructure scale alone. Where future access is perceived as uncertain—due to sanctions, insecurity, or strategic veto risks—states hedge by pursuing competing routes, limiting regional integration. The study shows that China and India promote connectivity as a means of influence-building. Nevertheless, their competing expectations and asymmetric dependencies create coordination problems for smaller states, as in the case of China’s CPEC and India’s INSTC, two regional connectivity projects with distinct interests. The findings contribute to debates on geo-economics by explaining why connectivity initiatives often produce parallel corridors rather than integrated regional networks.